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Notebook Computer Market Opens Up
Portable personal computers are one of the few bright spots in
the recession-plagued U.S. computer market. While sales of most types of computers have stagnated over the past year, demand for lightweight portables is growing apace with the introduction of dozens of new ''notebook'' models driving market growth.
After disappointing sales in 1990, when shortages of disk drives, flat panel displays and semiconductor chips stunted market growth, U.S. notebook computer sales took off last year, rising to an estimated 1.4 million units.
By the mid-1990s, annual U.S. portable computer sales could rise to 6.2 million units, according to International Data Corp. market researchers. However, the notebook computer market is not recession-proof. Although sales volumes are growing, prices are falling precipitously.
Dozens of ''clone'' makers, searching for more profitable ground as desktop personal computer prices plummet, have entered the notebook computer market offering lower-cost alternatives to the brand-name products that until recently dominated the field.
Apple Computer, which entered the notebook computer market just four months ago, has already cut the U.S. price for its low-end Powerbook notebook computer by 12%.
Simultaneously, Dell Computer cut its notebook prices by about 15% while slashing the price of desktop personal computers by up to 38%.
Other computer manufacturers are expected to follow suit, extending the industry's desktop computer price war into the portable computer segment and bringing the average price of a notebook computer down to well under US$2,000.
Early market leaders in the U.S. portable computer market have been Compaq Computer and Tandy of the U.S., the Zenith Data Systems division of France's Groupe Bull, and Japanese makers Toshiba and NEC.
Over the past year, however, some 40 or more computer companies launched new portable computer products in the U.S. intensifying competition and driving down prices.
Sitting strangely on the sidelines of the notebook computer market is computer giant International Business Machines Corp. After several failed attempts to penetrate the portable computer market, IBM is expected to launch its first ''true'' notebook computer later this month with an aggressively priced model that matches the performance and features of competing products.
Even as the pricing patterns of the portable computer market are aligning with those of the more mature desktop arena, technology advances are creating opportunities for portable computer makers to differentiate their products and avoid the low-margin ''commodity'' product trap.
Flat panel display technology, for example, is rapidly evolving to create crisper high resolution color screens for portable computers. Flash memory chips are emerging as a compact and more rugged alternative to magnetic data storage technology-based disk drives.
Power management technology is another area in which computer makers find room to differentiate one notebook computer from the next.
Compaq Computer has developed a patented low-power backlighting system for the computer display, normally the most power-hungry element of a notebook computer. The Compaq lighting system saves up to 50% of the power consumed by earlier display designs.
The next trend in portables may be radio links. Last year, Apple Computer filed a petition with the U.S. Federal Communications Commission that, if approved, would let computers transmit and receive information over radio waves.
Miniaturization of the personal computer has moved beyond the two- to three-kilogram notebook size to the hand-held or pocket computer. U.S. industry leaders in this emerging market include Hewlett-Packard and Poqet Computer.
On the horizon is yet another new type of portable computers known as slate computers. These notebook-sized devices will replace the familiar keyboard with an electronic pen. The user will simply write on the slate or point to icons to select functions.
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